India vs BRICS 2025: who’s leading the economic growth story?

We had done a thorough analysis in our last post on India’s economic growth — comparing the Congress era with the BJP era — and found that the BJP has fallen short of the growth numbers achieved during the Congress years on all parameters.

 

Today, we’re taking that conversation a step further. Instead of looking at India in isolation, we’ll compare India’s growth with that of the BRICS nations. After all, it would be unfair to conclude that the BJP has slowed India’s progress without a relative benchmark. Because Momentum is contagious in economics. Strong peers lift you up; weak peers weigh you down."

 

Although BRICS now has 11 permanent members, for this comparison we’ll stick to the original five: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. This grouping offers a balanced mix — from China, the global giant, to South Africa, a smaller but significant economy — making it a fair and insightful comparison.

 

BRICS as a bloc is one of the most powerful in geopolitics today, representing over 40% of the world’s population and contributing more than 35% of global GDP.

 

For this analysis, we’ve relied solely on World Bank’s Real GDP data. Nominal GDP doesn’t add much value in such comparisons, and GNI had to be excluded due to data gaps for Russia and China. Don’t worry — we’ve included the raw data here for transparency.

 

So let’s dive in and uncover:

·         Who is really leading the growth story in the BRICS bloc?

·         Is the slowdown in the BJP era justified in a global context?

·         And most importantly — is India truly rising on the world stage?

 

GDP average growth rate:

Country	1st 10 year	2nd 10 year	Difference
Brazil	3.51%	0.86%	-2.65%
China	10.05%	5.79%	-4.26%
India	6.76%	6.06%	-0.70%
Russian Federation	3.58%	1.53%	-2.06%
South Africa	3.04%	0.69%	-2.35%
Grand Total	5.39%	2.99%	-2.40%

 

 

If you look at the table, you will find China was the fastest and South Africa the slowest growing economy during 2005 to 2014, with growth rates of 10.05% and 3.04% respectively. However, during 2015 to 2024, India took over China to become the fastest growing economy with a growth rate of 6.06%, while South Africa continued to be the slowest.

 

While BRICS’ combined growth rate dropped by 2.40% (from 5.39% to 2.99%), India’s growth rate dropped only by 0.70% (from 6.76% to 6.06%). The biggest loser was China, which fell by 4.26% in the second 10-year period.

 

While India took over China and South Africa continued to feature at the bottom of the list, Brazil and Russia did not show sharp moves either way. They dropped by 2.65% and 2.06% respectively during 2015 to 2024.

 

By now it is established that in the first 10 years, China dominated BRICS growth, while India proved to be the most resilient economy when BRICS began losing its momentum.

 

However, since we are comparing two decades of economic performance, population change also becomes an important factor. If a country experienced higher population growth than others, its GDP is likely to grow faster due to a larger workforce. Hence, we also evaluated GDP growth per capita before reaching a conclusion.

 

Real GDP per capita growth:

Country	1st 10 year	2nd 10 year	Difference
Brazil	2.57%	0.29%	-2.29%
China	9.43%	5.51%	-3.92%
India	5.23%	5.00%	-0.23%
Russian Federation	3.42%	1.08%	-2.34%
South Africa	1.75%	-0.71%	-2.46%
Grand Total	4.48%	2.23%	-2.25%

 

While India had overtaken China in the second decade in terms of total Real GDP, when it comes to GDP per capita, China beats India by 0.51%. This means China’s population growth was lower relative to its GDP, while India’s GDP grew faster but not faster than its population.

 

India was not the fastest-growing economy in GDP per capita terms in either decade, but once again, it emerged as the most resilient economy during tough times, losing only 0.23%. China topped the table as the biggest loser, with its growth rate dropping from 9.43% to 5.51% — a fall of 3.92%.

 

While China led in both decades in growth rates, South Africa remained the slowest economy and even de-growing, hitting -0.71% during 2015 to 2024. Brazil and Russia continued to hover in the middle.

 

Conclusion:

 

It is clearly evident in the data that from 2005 to 2014 all five countries performed better than in 2015 to 2024. When it came to losing momentum, China lost it big time. However, India shined as the most resilient economy, losing less than 1% in absolute GDP, while the entire BRICS average fell by almost 2.5%. GDP per capita data confirmed India’s resilience.

 

This resilience suggests that the Modi government managed the Indian economy reasonably well in tough times. The slowdown was not due to the government’s inability to handle the economy, but largely due to external and macroeconomic factors.

 

While China is still the clear economic superpower in BRICS due to its sheer size, India’s resilient growth is emerging as a major challenge to its dominance in the bloc. If this were a geopolitics comparison, China could be placed with the United States, and India could safely be placed in the USSR’s shoes.

 

It will be interesting to see if India continues the momentum or follows the USSR into collapse! What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.

 

Thank you for reading till the end. Please share this analysis with your friends and colleagues, and do let us know if you have any feedback or suggestions!